Final Presidential Debate
From: Mike Rouse.
It Was Worth It
ConservativeHome and PoliticsHome yesterday questioned the value of the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. They countered the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and ICM’s poll showing a majority of people against 42-day detention with their own PHI5000 poll showing a negligible change in opinion before and after the campaign. This was backed up by UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells, who took issue with ICM’s methodology, accusing them of skewing the result by asking leading questions.
The PHI5000 poll however is just as flawed, at least, as ICM’s. The debate revolves around context: Wells claims that ICM is prejudicing the outcome of their poll by inserting context. Anyone who has watched Yes Prime Minister! will know how exactly what he means. The problem here however is that the context is vital to assessing Davis’ campaign. Unlike either poll’s sample, the voters of Haltemprice and Howden went to the polls after weeks of campaigning revolving around the issue. They would, naturally, be better informed. ICM’s inclusion of the “leading” reference at the beginning had the effect of replicating the mindset of voters in the by-election.
Politicians like to claim that “the only poll that counts” is the one organised by the Electoral Commission. Davis’ campaign revolved around challenging the orthodoxy that the public backed the 42-day detention by holding just such a poll. The conflict between the ICM and PHI5000 figures demonstrates exactly why this was necessary. The opinion polls could not be trusted to provide an accurate result, and so a mini-referendum was held instead.
Neither poll is better than the other: they look at the question in different ways. What they show however is that when put into context, the public oppose 42-day detention. Davis’ campaign was to provide that context to the public at large in order to elevate the tone of debate. At the very least, the campaign was worth it to provide a better barometer of opinion on the issue than an abstract poll that ignores other relevant factors. The results of the poll vindicate his decision: the turnout was respectable and the majority significant.
The claim that “the public” support 42 days is now squashed. Regardless of how you interpret the results, the government can no longer argue that there is a strong public desire to lengthen the period of detention without charge; if there had been, Davis would not have been returned. He should be congratulated for his efforts.
Sphere: Related ContentGovernment Debates Davis
Sky News organised a debate between David Davis and Tony McNulty over the central issues of the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. This may be the closest we get to an actual debate with the government over the issue, so I’ve reproduced it here.
Sphere: Related ContentCrewe and Nantwich Diary: Day 2
This morning I jumped out of bed and into the shower like a bolt of lightning. In that groggy immediate post-sleep state I believed that I had slept through my alarm call and was now running late for the day’s campaigning. I threw my hayfever pills down my throat and turned the TV on to BBC News.
It was 4:30 am.
The problem here is that I tend to suffer from bad hayfever towards the end of spring and the begninning of summer. The symptoms start about one hour after I wake up, subside a further hour after I’ve taken my pills, and then return with a vengeance nine hours later. Having now firmly woken up and taken my pills far too early in the day, I was condemned to spending the rest of the night sleeping badly and suffering the onset of more symptoms earlier in the afternoon than I had hoped. Fortunately it meant that I was up and out of the hotel in time to be the first Conservative activist to be in the Crewe Office. As a result I was rewarded with the vital task of making the tea. The Conservatives are the party of custom, tradition and great British institutions. There is no greater British institution than drinking of tea, and no greater custom or tradition either. As a result drinking Tea has a central place in the Conservative philosophy: the party can’t function without it. Far from being a menial task, being invited to brew tea for senior staff in the Conservative Party is a great honour, a vital task, and a sign of great trust. Or at least that’s what I was telling myself.
Following a cup of tea to wake up, I was sent on my way leafleting around 200 houses. This was a largely logistical challenge, trying to make sure that the leaflets were delivered in the target area with as little double-backing as possible. As the leaflets are all individually addressed, one has to spend a significant amount of time planning your route, and sorting the leaflets into the right order to minimise rummaging. Nonetheless it still took nigh on three hours to deliver all the leaflets. The area I covered had a roughly even number of Tory and Labour posters, but leaning slightly towards the Conservatives (although this might be my own bias). One thing is certain though: Cats are Tories, Dogs are not. Cats can’t seem to get enough of me and other Tory canvassers, and at one point I ended up getting shadowed by a tabby when delivering leaflets on her street. The dogs however were universally hostile, even in Tory houses. Nonetheless the attitude of most people there was friendly: I even had “Vote Timpson” shouted at me from a car driving by. The only voter I encountered today who was hostile was a disaffected chap who was angry that none of the parties were promising to bring back caning in schools.
After a rather long morning in Crewe I then went over to the sector office in Nantwich. This place has a much more visible Conservative presence. The area is much more developed and affluent, and (on the face of things) overwhelmingly Tory. I don’t think I saw more than two Labour posters in the entire area, and there wasn’t a single Labour activist to be seen. By comparison, the Conservatives are out in force. The Nantwich office was brimming with activists and volunteers from all over the country, all pitching in to help where they could. Being more central today I got to witness the level of activity, and it’s even greater than I thought it was yesterday. The high profile of our campaign is evident in that there were two media vans outside our offices today, and there is going to be a swarm of journos, hacks, onlookers and so forth tomorrow. Locals were coming in to get rosettes and baloons, to ask questions and to inform us as to what the other parties are up to. Kids came in to trade the paraphenalia the other parties gave them for our blue rosettes and baloons. Of particular pride have been the number of requests for posters to be displayed. There was a target of 500 properties displaying Conservative posters throughout the campaign. The level of support however has been so great that we now have posters displayed on three times that number of properties. People have been approaching our canvassers asking us to provide giant posters to be displayed on their premises. A particular coup was when a businessman offered to display a gigantic poster on property facing a main road. This occurred within a few hours.
The voters are still more receptive than I ever could have imagined. Notwithstanding the “bring back caning” fellow, there has been an overwhelming level of receptiveness. When delivering a pile of flyers to a retirement home I expected to be thrown out and unwelcome as any other mass mailer. To my surprise I was welcomed in by the staff, who were extremely keen on “making sure Brown gets the message”. The owner did all the delivery for me, and said that she would ensure that every resident knew that we would be able to drive them to the polling station tomorrow. People are keen to hear what the Tories have to say, and nobody is buying in to the nasty little campaign Labour is running.
Although there is some coverage of the depths of Labour’s current electoral strategy, it does not demonstrate how far they have sunk. They are running an entirely negative and vicious campaign revolving entirely around class. The latest pamphlets portray Timpson in a massive top hat and bow tie, and describe him as having a “silver spoon in his mouth”. They’ve moved away from making claims that the Wales-inhabiting Dunwoody-Kneafsey is “one of us”, and the general mood is that the rubbish they are spouting has backfired tremendously. The sort of dog-whistle politics may appeal to hardcore Labour activists, but they are absolutely useless to the undecided voter who wants to know what their policies are. The emphasis of Timpson’s background has actually helped him: people recognise the link to the philanthropic family he belongs to, and claims that he has “spent his whole life being waited on”, despite the having 80 adopted siblings from underprivileged backgrounds, smacks of petty jealousy. Crewe and Nantwich are turning on a party that penalises the successful: they want to better their lot, and are switching to a Conservative message of support for such efforts.
The Times also picked up on the class issue today. Their People section has published what has been circulating round the internet: that Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey is listed in Burke’s Peerage, describing her as part of the “landed gentry”, making her the real toff in the election. Daniel Finkelstein also decries the class war strategy as electoral stupidity that ’signals the end of new Labour’. Of particular interest was the following:
Since the days of the industrial revolution there has always been something of an alliance between the working class and the aristocracy… When the fighting broke out in the streets of Leeds over the amelioration of factory conditions, radicals and workers’ leaders such as Richard Oastler saw themselves as allies of Tories such as the Earl of Shaftesbury. To be portrayed as a top-hatted toff actually represents an improvement in the Tory image
There is a long tradition of aristocratic and Conservative support for the working classes. Benjamin Disraeli, a founder of the One Nation Conservative tradition, in his days as a young radical was part of the “Young England Quartet”; a group of thinkers possessed of a romantic notion of the working classes and aristocracy united to confront the industrial revolution. Their ideas may have been little more than hopeless romanticism and unrefined radicalism, but some of the ideas their group represented formed the nucleus of the One Nation tradition. Now that the Conservatives have rediscovered this side to their identity and politics, people are starting to take the message seriously again. The message that privilege comes with duties has actually benefited from Labour’s emphasis on Timpson’s privileged background.
The other parties were barely visible. UKIP trundled round in their jeep and ranted to a few people, and the English Democrats made an attempt in Crewe to win support, but largely failed when the media showed little interest in them. They moved, muttering into their loudhailers. When the Liberal Democrats, complete with posters, placards, baloons and a significant section of their front bench arrived to walk through Nantwich, their reception was poorly received. They talked to a few bemused locals who insisted that they would not vote for a third party in such a close race, before moving swiftly on after getting heckled by a group of schoolchildren who couldn’t make their mind up whether or not they supported the Tories or Labour.
The campaign has been so efficient and well-managed that we’ve been able to finish all our tasks by around five or six, several hours before expected. Crewe and Nantwich Conservatives have always been very good at their campaigning. Now that this is no longer a safe seat they have been able to press this advantage. For example: normally the first days of a Tory campaign consist of sorting all the maps and routes. The party branch here had that already prepared before the election was announced. Nobody is kept idle and tasking has been extremely effective. We’ve been receptive to local demands, and able to adjust our strategy accordingly: those who don’t want any more attention are swiftly removed from the mailing lists, and comments and concerns by residents are relayed back to campaign headquarters.
That’s about as much as I can write for today. I’m sorry if it’s rambling but I’ve had a long and tiring day. Tomorrow I actually do have to wake up at 4, as we prepare for the “morning raid”: a last-ditch effort at sending round the last bits of electoral literature. After that I’ll be working as a teller at a local polling station.
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