On Mandelson
An interesting news cycle and certainly an eye-catching initiative, but now that the dust of the reshuffle has settle somewhat, what are the implications of the return of the Prince of Darkness to the Cabinet?
My first impression is that this is an attempt by Brown to build a wider coalition of support within his own party. His traditional tactics of maintaining a small but loyal cadre and intimidating all who go against it has ultimately run its course. The “nomination papers” challenge and increasing openness of dissent within Labour have ultimately undermined his ability to effectively threaten his own party into compliance. Likewise the limitations of his loyalists in terms of ministerial ability has also been problematic (think Ed Balls), forcing him to look elsewhere for talent. Bringing Mandelson in and appointing John Hutton to one of the Great Offices of State demonstrates an apparent willingness to look beyond his own faction for support. Whether or not he is able to move beyond such gestures and actually start delegating responsibility for decisions is as yet unknown.
Not any more
The Tories are immensely pleased at this turn of events. CCHQ very quickly issued a press release gloating over the well-known personal differences between Mandelson and Brown. It certainly helps them press the message of a Labour party running out of ideas with a need to bring back an old and unpopular spin doctor. The message of “No Flash, Just Gordon” is now very firmly dead, and the theme of “Labour Spin” can now be milked for all that it is worth. They predict that this appointment will ultimately backfire on Brown. That his job will involve “holding the hand of business as we enter a nasty downturn” the probability of his becoming a futher focus of disaffection within Labour and having another falling out with Brown remains high.
Among the press something of a Marmite effect has occurred. While all seem to agree that is is a bold move, opinion is divided as to whether it is a prudent one. The two groups either argue that it is a brilliant appointment of an experienced New Labour man, or that it is the desperate appointment of a New Labour spin doctor who became associated with some of the worst excesses of the Blair years. A few have settled in the centre arguing that it is probably a bit of both.
This reshuffle ultimately undermines Brown’s case that in the present economic situation “this is no time for a novice”. By moving the relatively competent Mandelson and Hutton out of the EU Trade Commission and DBERR respectively, he has undermined the argument that experience is required to guide the nation through the present economic period. Although Mandelson gains Hutton’s portfolio, he nonetheless will be put on something of a back foot as he adjusts to his new office.
I cannot help but think however that the moving of Mandelson has weakened the British position in Brussels at a most inappropriate time. Just at the moment when the EU looks to try and act on the economy, we remove a competent and experienced trade commisssioner from the post. It is hard to imagine that Baroness Ashton, his successor, will be able to match his ability in these negotiations for a long time, particularly given her lack of experience in any trade-related portfolio.
One interesting side-effect of re-appointing such a well-known figure to the Cabinet is that it may depersonalise the Brown administration. By bearing the Mandelson Seal of Approval, policies may be perceived to be conceived and implemented in a more collegiate manner, and be less associated with the Prime Minister as a result. Although this could beneficial for Brown, it may also end up damaging Labour as a whole. If this depersonalisation occurs, the ineluctably Brownite policies of the government will become associated with the wider Labour Party. The argument could shift from “Brown isn’t Working” to “Labour isn’t Working” once more. That would be very dangerous indeed.
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