I’ll probably be posting several times on the Iranian elections today as I wade through a stack of articles I’ve managed to assemble.
It looks like it’s being hyped up with Mousavi portrayed as a Persian Obama. Looking at the al-Jazeera profiling the phrase “cigarette paper” comes to mind. All the candidates have promised some form of increased engagement with the US, although they have all asserted that they will retain their nuclear programme. Given the restrictive vetting process candidates have to go through, that may be all one can hope for.
Mousavi looks to be bringing more of a change of style than substance to Iranian foreign policy, although his room for manoeuvre is limited by the Iranian constitution. Holocaust denial and extreme provocations notwithstanding, a significant portion of Iranians support their “assertive” foreign policy and prestige associated with the nuclear programme. Nonetheless, Ahmadinejad’s extremism has irked a lot of people, and it doesn’t help that he portrays himself as an anti-establishment figure. A softening of tone might be preferred by all involved, with Mousavi simply aligning himself with the new political consensus. His main differences are over domestic liberalisation, relaxing theocratic restrictions, advancing women’s rights, and abolishing the “morality police”. This in something of a contrast to when Mousavi last held office and was accused of bashing opponents over the head.
It’s worth remembering that despite the portrayals of Mousavi as a breath of fresh air, he is in many ways the Iranian establishment’s candidate. He is offering stability, in contrast to the radicalism of Ahmadinejad, and is backed by leading figures from previous Iranian governments. Ahmadinejad has always portrayed himself as the outsider, and complained in a TV debate of his opposition being “three consecutive governments”. Mousavi is not proposing a radical overhaul, but rather a reining in of the excesses of Ahmadinejad’s rule, along with some modest reforms to the political system.
Where things get interesting is that Mousavi may have built a coalition that is running away with him. His wife appears to have taken over the campaign, and the liberals who don’t normally vote have come out to back him as an “anyone but Mahmoud” candidate. A scent of victory seems to have enthused it into becoming a more powerful campaign than initially anticipated. Indeed the Times’s foreign news editor argues that the election has already spiralled out of the close political control of the clerics. That popular bandwagon may force Mousavi to be a more bold reformist than he would instinctively prefer.
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