It Was Worth It

ConservativeHome and PoliticsHome yesterday questioned the value of the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. They countered the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and ICM’s poll showing a majority of people against 42-day detention with their own PHI5000 poll showing a negligible change in opinion before and after the campaign. This was backed up by UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells, who took issue with ICM’s methodology, accusing them of skewing the result by asking leading questions.

The PHI5000 poll however is just as flawed, at least, as ICM’s. The debate revolves around context: Wells claims that ICM is prejudicing the outcome of their poll by inserting context. Anyone who has watched Yes Prime Minister! will know how exactly what he means. The problem here however is that the context is vital to assessing Davis’ campaign. Unlike either poll’s sample, the voters of Haltemprice and Howden went to the polls after weeks of campaigning revolving around the issue. They would, naturally, be better informed. ICM’s inclusion of the “leading” reference at the beginning had the effect of replicating the mindset of voters in the by-election.

Politicians like to claim that “the only poll that counts” is the one organised by the Electoral Commission. Davis’ campaign revolved around challenging the orthodoxy that the public backed the 42-day detention by holding just such a poll. The conflict between the ICM and PHI5000 figures demonstrates exactly why this was necessary. The opinion polls could not be trusted to provide an accurate result, and so a mini-referendum was held instead.

Neither poll is better than the other: they look at the question in different ways. What they show however is that when put into context, the public oppose 42-day detention. Davis’ campaign was to provide that context to the public at large in order to elevate the tone of debate. At the very least, the campaign was worth it to provide a better barometer of opinion on the issue than an abstract poll that ignores other relevant factors. The results of the poll vindicate his decision: the turnout was respectable and the majority significant.

The claim that “the public” support 42 days is now squashed. Regardless of how you interpret the results, the government can no longer argue that there is a strong public desire to lengthen the period of detention without charge; if there had been, Davis would not have been returned. He should be congratulated for his efforts.

Tagged as: 42 Days, By-election, ConservativeHome, David Davis, Election, Liberty, PHI5000, PoliticsHome, Poll